How's about a little context by drawing on some parallels from different industries. When I re-entered the comic book collecting scene in 2010, I was truly aghast at how complicated and expensive the hobby had become.
I am a die hard Incredible Hulk fan, but to follow the modern Incredible Hulk story, you had to buy seven different comics from seven different superheros; Hulk, Captain America, Iron Man, Black Widow, etc., etc. Some of the crossover books were just Easter eggs, but many others were essential to understanding key events in the story of a character. At $4 - $6 a book... it was way too expensive and way to confusing to stay engaged.
This is nothing more than a strategy by the comic book industry to sell more comic books, action figures and other merchandise.
I wrote a post a back in 2014 for another blog I used to write for called Honest Comics Review. The title of the post was, "The Burst of the Dot-Comic Bubble Approaches; An Essay". The main premise of the post was that Hollywood was doing what Hollywood does; it over-saturates the market of a genre to the point of collapsing the market.
I predicted in that essay that at some point in the near future, the consumer would become weary of the genre that was producing 14+ comic based movies a year and 18 comic based television shows, all of which had comic book tie-ins that would tell the story between the movies and television seasons. And my prediction is starting to come true. In the last year, a few comic book based movies have flopped, a few comic book television series have been cancelled and my local comic shop is starting to see hard times again.
It's a cycle and it's common.
By the mid to late 80s, with the movie market saturated with slasher films like Nightmare on Elm Street, Friday the 13th, etc., etc., many of which, mostly the low budget films went straight to VHS, the public was burned out on slasher trope, and money wasn't being made. When money isn't being made, big budget horror movies aren't being made outside of the numerous sequels of well known, established villains; Michael, Freddy and Jason.
Then came 1996 and Wes Craven brought us Scream. Breaking the slasher mold, making fun of the common tropes of the slasher genre while entertaining us with a new villain; Ghost Face. It was very meta, a movie within the genre, using the genre's tired tropes to expose and make fun of the genre's tired tropes.
Slasher Films were cool again and the bubble began to expand.
It is common for these bubbles to expand and then collapse. People get excited for a short period of time, then get bored with the same thing over and over. In the horror movie world, the current bubble is supernatural horror; Annabelle, The Conjuring, Paranormal Activity, Sinister, etc.
Comic book related television shows are being cancelled after just a few seasons, long running comic book series are even being cancelled. Comic Book movies are starting to get stalled in pre-production.
Just like what happened in Slasher Bubble, people are burning out on the comic book genre. I hate to say "I told you so", but I will say...
...I saw it coming.
Now this is not a post about comic books, men in capes or scantily clad women in refrigerators; yes that is a thing in the world of comics. No, this is not a post about horror movies. But there are parallels that can be drawn between these industries and vinyl records.
Let me explain a bit before you burn me as a heretic.
As consumers, we like to spend our money on items we have passion about. In some cases it's music, or audio equipment in other cases it is comic books or horror movies. We all have different reasons for our passions. No matter how similar or dissimilar those reasons may be, in the end, our common passions unite to create this thing called demand.
In 2016 Vinyl Record Sales out performed MP3 downloads for the first time since iTunes began reporting sales. Regardless of our individual reasons for loving vinyl; this is demand.
Corporations take note of this type of information. And, doing what corporations do, they figure out how to make a metric shit-ton of cash from it. As a result, we get a bigger market to pick from which is typically good for us consumers.
Record Store Day is a great example of this expanding market or as I like to call it, exploitation of consumer passions.
While the event was started at a single record store in 2007, the event was launched nationally in 2008 as an annual event, held on a Saturday every April to "celebrate the culture of the independently owned record store". That was the core motivation behind Record Store Day; "celebrate the culture of the independently owned record store."
The first year there were ten special releases that were a part of Record Store Day. It was small grassroots celebration in the truest form of word celebration.
Due to the event's unusually high success and sales, the next year, there were eighty-five "special" releases. Corporations saw an opportunity to exploit the money and they took it. And now, this year, 2017, there were 286 "special" and limited releases. In many cases, this isn't even new music, just limited edition reissues. The same music in a different package. If it sounds a lot like the variant covers for comics books, that because it is exactly the same thing.
Record Store Day has become so exploited, that the day before Record Store Day 2017 happened some of those special releases, like Jason Isabelle's limited release, retail priced at $18, were already listed on Ebay for $100 or more; again, the day before.
What started as an grassroots event to celebrate the very people that kept the music from slipping into the background of our lives, in less than a decade, Record Store Day became a juggernaut of retail exploitation, in many cases making the a year's worth of sales for local record stores in a single day. But this is not the record store's fault. It is all on the industry.
Limited Edition Pressings
Different Colored Pressings
Re-Releases
Two Record Store Days per year (yes... they released limited edition vinyl and cds on Black Friday as a part of a second Record Store Day)
Back in the 70s and 80s, we had BMG and Columbia House as the alternative methods for acquiring music, known as record clubs. I f you wanted vinyl cheap back then, you played the record club game. Anyone remember 11 records for a penny?
Today, everyone under the sun is getting into the vinyl manufacturing business, specializing in "rare", "limited edition" pressings of known and obscure bands. We have Numero Group, Third Man Store, Mississippi Records’, Vinyl Me, Please, Wax & Stamp, Now-Again Deluxe, Flying Vinyl... and so many more. And yes, even Columbia House announced, in February 2016, it was getting back into the Record Club Business "by the end of 2016" (although they missed their deadline for their "New Details Coming Soon" as no new details have been provided since that announcement.) It sounds, by the cast silence coming from Columbia House, like Columbia House may have reconsidered the record club business.
Many of these record services don't even operate like in the traditional sense that clubs of the past did. Instead, these clubs took a cue from the Loot Crates of the world. In today's service, you mostly pay absurd amounts of money, anywhere from $20 a month to $300 a quarter, and you receive a "surprise" at your doorstep. That's right, you don't get to select your record(s).
It's a lot like Loot Crate for vinyl, you're promised something cool every month, but in the end it's a surprise. The problem with this business model is, my definition of "cool" is different than your definition of "cool" and we are both different from "his" definition of "cool" and "his" is different from her definition of "cool". Not everyone likes the same thing; that is what makes digging for vinyl so rewarding; it's a personal experience.
I know lot of people who subscribed to Loot Crate (and other similar services) that are just similar to these modern "record clubs". In the case of Loot Crate, without fail, these people start by being excited about everything they get in their surprise box, then after a few months, they start disliking a few of the things they get. A few months after that, they aren't happy with most of what they get. If you don't believe me, try watching a few un-boxing videos for Loot Crate or Horror Box on youtube. They are excited about one or two things in the box, if that sometimes, but the rest, they openly say they are going to throw it on ebay or donate it to their local Goodwill.
Hell, I have small collection by many standards, but still, at over 800 records in my collection. When I play the "have it/need it" game, when I am digging, I find myself saying "Have it" more than I say "Need it". If I was paying a service to get vinyl every month, like Vinyl Me, Please who sends out older records, like Black Sabbath, Talking Heads, Etc. and they were sending me duplicates of records I already owned every month, I would not find a lot of value in that real fast.
Finally it seems that everybody under the sun is making vinyl records. Recently it was announced that Jack White just started Third Man Pressing, a record pressing company that is going to specialize in limited edition, colored vinyl pressings. Yet another fish in the ocean of specialized record pressing companies. As to not just throw shade at Jack, I am happy that his fifty employees will be making $15 an hour and have a nice benefits package; something that is rare in Detroit.
But, in the end, Jack White's Third Man Pressing is just another example of adding to the continuing over-saturation of the manufacturing market. But Jack isn't the only problem it's the industry as a whole.
The questions that beg to be answered are;
- How long can all of these manufacturers stay in business?
- How long will the world's mass-re-acquired love of vinyl remain?
- How much disposable income does the world have to spend on vinyl?
- What happens when the vinyl bubble finally pops?
If everyone, meaning the millions of fish in the ocean, is manufacturing vinyl, how long will it be before the manufacturing behemoth produces more than the consumer can pay for? How long before the first manufacturer shutters it's doors? How long before our local record stores have more vinyl on their shelves than they can sell. How long will the consumer interest in vinyl support this micro-economy? Does it all come crashing down when our next recession hits?
I don't know the answer to these questions, I'm just a consumer; a person pointing at the poo in the room. A poo pointer. What I do know is that while it lasts we should enjoy it. And when the vinyl bubble does burst, because it will, when it all comes crashing down, those of us who are real music lovers, will find all the German Techno Folk Metal we could ever want in just about every garage sale and Goodwill we go to.
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